Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could have a knock-on effect for space
activities, with major uncertainties around an upcoming European Mars rover
and the launch of satellites for UK company OneWeb, which is part-owned by
the UK government.
One of the leading questions so far has been whether Russia’s partnership
with NASA on the International Space Station (ISS) can continue. Currently,
seven astronauts – four from the US, two from Russia and one from Germany –
are aboard the station. Four more private astronauts from the US, Israel and
Canada are set to launch to the ISS on a SpaceX vehicle next month.
NASA has so far said that the ISS won’t be affected, despite heavy incoming
sanctions for Russia from nations across the world. “The new export control
measures will continue to allow US-Russia civil space cooperation,” the
agency said in a statement. “No changes are planned to the agency’s support
for ongoing in orbit and ground station operations.”
Russia’s previous invasions of Crimea in 2014 and Georgia in 2008 didn’t
result in a change to ISS operations, though on 24 February, Dmitry Rogozin,
head of the Russian space agency Rosocosmos,
tweeted
a warning that US sanctions against Russia could “destroy” cooperation over
the ISS.
There is much more uncertainty for European space projects. Russia is set to
launch two key missions for the European Space Agency (ESA). The first is
its flagship Rosalind Franklin rover, which is part of the ExoMars programme
and is due to blast off in September in search of life on the Red Planet.
The second is the Euclid space telescope, which is designed to study dark
matter and dark energy and is scheduled for launch in early 2023.
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“Russia would get a lot of credibility from being involved in a Mars
mission,” says
Chris Lee, former
chief scientist at the UK Space Agency. “How can we sanction that when there
is a war taking place in Ukraine?”
The rover had already been delayed from 2020, partly because of the
coronavirus pandemic. If it were delayed again to avoid Russian cooperation,
the next window for launch would be in 2024. But Russia was also set to
supply the landing system for the rover, so a new one would have to be
developed from scratch. “I’d be very surprised if they could do all that
within two years,” says Lee.
Josef Aschbacher, ESA’s director general, said for now the collaborations
would continue. “Civil space cooperation remains a bridge. ESA continues to
work on all of its programmes, including on ISS and ExoMars,” he
tweeted. “We continue to monitor the evolving situation.”
The satellite firm OneWeb faces the most immediate challenge. The company,
which the UK government
owns a £370 million stake
in, is in the process of deploying a megaconstellation of satellites that
can beam the internet around the world. So far, more than 400 satellites
have been flown on 13 launches, all on Russian Soyuz rockets. At least five
more launches are scheduled, including one on 4 March from Russia’s Baikonur
Cosmodrome launch site in Kazakhstan.
“The launch campaign is in the final stages,” says Anatoly Zak, editor of
website
RussianSpaceWeb.com. “Much of the work is done, so who knows what will happen. It looks like
it is proceeding at this point.” Both OneWeb and the UK government declined
to comment on the situation, although the UK’s prime minister Boris Johnson
said in the House of Commons on 24 February that it was “hard to see” how
scientific collaboration with Russia could continue as normal.
The conflict raises significant questions about future collaborations with
Russia in space, including NASA’s current goal of returning astronauts to
the moon, a programme that many international partners have signed up to
join – but not Russia. “There’s a good chance the ISS will persist,” says
Brian Weeden
at space advocacy organisation Secure World Foundation. “Unfortunately, the
prospects of US-Russia space cooperation beyond the ISS are pretty dim.”